A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
